SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, MARCH 12
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
(at Atlantic City, N.J.)
Dayton (20-11, 13-14-1 ATS) vs. (24) Xavier (23-7, 19-10 ATS)
The Flyers damaged their Big Dance hopes by dropping five of their final seven games to end the regular season, going 1-5-1 ATS. However, Dayton got back on track just in time with Monday’s 70-60 home win over George Washington in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 tournament, but came up short as an 11½-point favorite. The Flyers finished in the middle of the Atlantic 10 pack and are now 9-8 in conference play (6-10-1 ATS). They’re also just 5-9 in road/neutral-site games (5-8 ATS in lined action).
Xavier closed the regular season on a seven-game winning streak (5-2 ATS) to finish 14-2 in league play, gain a share of the conference title with Temple and earn a first-round bye. However, the Musketeers lost the tiebreaker and are the No. 2 seed in this event. They come into today having won 15 of 17 overall, the only defeats coming on the road in conference to Temple (77-72) and Dayton (90-50). Since getting crushed at Dayton, Xavier has won four straight on the road, including a 12-point non-conference victory at Florida.
Not only did the Flyers hand Xavier its worst defeat of the season with that 25-point rout as a 3½-point favorite on Feb. 6, but they also gave the Musketeers a scare three weeks earlier, falling 78-74 but cashing as a five-point road underdog. Dayton has cashed in four of the last five meetings following a 5-0 ATS run by Xavier. Also, the chalk has taken the cash in 13 of the last 17 in this rivalry.
Dayton’s current 1-6-1 ATS slump has come entirely within conference, and the Flyers are also 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site games. Conversely, Xavier is on ATS runs of 34-16-2 overall, 34-16-1 at neutral courts, 8-3 in conference, 7-3 after a SU win, 6-2 following a non-cover and 4-0 on Friday.
The Flyers have topped the total in four of five against winning teams, while Xavier carries “over” trends of 15-7 overall, 13-4 after a SU win, 11-3 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against winning teams. However, the Musketeers have stayed below the total in 10 of their last 11 at neutral venues. Finally, these teams have hurdled the total in four of their last five clashes, including the last three in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER and OVER
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
Georgia Tech (20-11, 13-10-2 ATS) vs. (19) Maryland (23-7, 17-9 ATS)
Georgia Tech snapped a two-game SU and three-game ATS skid with a 62-58 victory over North Carolina on Thursday, pushing as a four-point chalk but still knocking out the defending NCAA champs. The Yellow Jackets are 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) on neutral courts this year, averaging 69 ppg on a solid 48.8 percent shooting, while holding opponents to 62.5 ppg on a stifling 36.1 percent shooting.
Maryland has been on fire the second half of the season, winning seven in a row and 13 of 15 while cashing in six of its last seven games. The Terrapins, who tied Duke for the regular-season ACC crown but are the tourney’s second seed, topped Virginia 74-68 as a five-point chalk Saturday to cap the regular season. Gary Williams’ squad averages 79.8 ppg (15th nationally) while giving up 67.4, allowing just 38.7 percent shooting (11th).
Maryland has ripped off nine consecutive victories in this rivalry (6-3 ATS), although Tech has cashed in two of the last three. In this season’s lone meeting, the Terps won 76-74 at home Feb. 20, but the Jackets easily covered as a 7½-point pup. The underdog has covered in the last four meetings.
The Yellow Jackets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six at neutral sites and are on a 3-1-1 ATS run following a spread-cover, but they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven starts against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and they remain in a 2-6-2 overall rut (all in the ACC). The Terrapins are one of the hottest teams going at the betting window, sporting positive pointspread streaks of 14-3 overall, 22-7 in the ACC, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-1 against winning teams. The lone knock: a 1-4 ATS mark in their last five neutral-site starts.
The over for Georgia Tech is on rolls of 4-1 overall (all in ACC play), 7-3 after a spread-cover and 5-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, though the under has gone 11-3 in the Jackets’ last 14 Friday outings. Maryland is on “over” stretches of 18-7-1 overall, 5-0 in the ACC, 5-0 after a SU win, 4-0 after an ATS win, 4-1 at neutral sites and 12-3-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
Finally, last month’s meeting in this rivalry cleared the posted total of 144, ending a 3-1 “under” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND and OVER
N.C. State (18-14, 15-13-1 ATS) vs. Florida State (22-8, 8-17 ATS)
North Carolina State is on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge, having opened the ACC tourney Thursday with a 59-57 upset of Clemson as a seven-point underdog. The 11th-seeded Wolfpack are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at neutral sites this season, despite averaging just 62.8 ppg in those contests, succeeding mostly due to a defense that allowed just 54.8 ppg in those four contests. Clemson, though, was the best of that batch, as the other wins came over Auburn, Akron and Austin Peay.
Florida State, seeded fourth, is making a late-season push for Big Dance inclusion, having won five of its last six (3-3 ATS, all in ACC), including the last two in a row. On Saturday at Miami, the Seminoles squeaked out a 61-60 victory, but fell just short as a 1½-point chalk in taking their third straight ATS setback. Florida State, which went 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) on neutral floors this year, fields the nation’s No. 1 shooting defense, allowing foes to hit just 37.2 percent from the floor for 60.2 ppg (19th), while averaging 69.0 ppg on offense.
N.C. State notched an 88-81 road upset of Florida State as a hefty 11-point pup on Jan. 12, ending a 3-1 SU and ATS run by the ‘Noles in this rivalry. The SU winner is on a 17-0 ATS firestorm, the ‘Pack are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 clashes, and the pup has covered in the last four meetings.
The Wolfpack are on a 5-8 ATS dive in their last 13 games and are 3-5 ATS in their last eight following a SU win, but along with their current 4-1 SU and ATS run, they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 Friday starts. The Seminoles are among the worst spread-covering teams in the country, standing 322nd among 332 teams, and are mired in ATS funks of 4-11 overall (all in ACC action) and 3-11 against winning teams.
N.C. State is on “under” streaks of 6-1 overall (all in the ACC), 7-3 on Friday and 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, and Florida State is on “under” rolls of 5-1 overall (all in the ACC), 5-0-1 on Friday and 19-6-2 on neutral courts. However, the total has gone high in the last four meetings in this rivalry, and the over is 4-0 for both these teams in their last four outings against winning squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.C. STATE
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
(23) Texas A&M (23-8, 18-9 ATS) vs. (1) Kansas (30-2, 12-16-1 ATS)
The Aggies go in search of their fifth straight victory when they take on the top-ranked and top-seeded Jayhawks in a semifinal contest at the Sprint Center. Texas A&M advanced with Thursday’s 70-64 victory over Nebraska, but fell short at the window as an eight-point favorite. That ended the Aggies’ 10-0 ATS run.
Since getting blown out at Oklahoma State two weeks ago, Kansas has ripped off three straight wins (2-1 ATS), including Thursday’s 80-68 victory over Texas Tech, never coming close to covering as a 17½-point favorite. The Jayhawks led by a basket with 5:55 left but used a 12-0 run to pull away. Sherron Collins had 19 points and six assists and center Cole Aldrich had 12 points and 18 rebounds. The only downside for Kansas is its 3-9 ATS mark in their last 12 games, all against Big 12 foes.
Kansas has won four straight in this rivalry (2-2 ATS) and 10 of the last 11 (6-5 ATS) dating back to the 2001 season. In the only regular-season clash this year, the Jayhawks scored a 59-54 road victory, but just missed as a 6½-point road chalk.
Along with their current 10-1 ATS surge, the Aggies are on spread-covering sprees of 39-19 overall, 7-1 after a SU win, 7-0 against winning teams and 22-8 in the Big 12. The Jayhawks are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600, but the pointspread streaks tumble downward from there, including 2-6 overall (all in the Big 12), 1-6 after a SU win, 2-5 away from home and 3-6 against winning teams.
These teams stayed under the total in their meeting at Texas A&M last month, part of the Aggies’ ongoing 6-2 “under” streak. Also, Kansas is on “under” runs of 6-3 overall (3-0 last three), 6-2 away from home (all in Big 12 play).
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and UNDER
(21) Baylor (25-6, 16-8 ATS) vs. (9) Kansas State (25-6, 17-8-1 ATS)
Winners of five straight (4-1 ATS), Baylor now takes that hot streak into the Big 12 semifinals for a showdown with Kansas State. The Bears crushed Texas for the second time in six days on Thursday, winning 86-67 as a one-point favorite. Three players did the bulk of the damage for Baylor, with LaceDarius Dunn getting 19 points, nine rebounds and seven assists to go with Tweety Carter’s 20 points and Ekpe Udoh’s 25 points and eight boards.
Kansas State snapped a two-game SU and ATS losing streak that closed the regular season with an 83-64 rout of Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals Thursday, cashing as a 4½-point chalk. Prior to last night, the Wildcats had dropped consecutive games for the first time all season, getting blown out at Kansas on March 3 and falling at home to Iowa State on Saturday, 85-82 as a 15-point favorite.
In the lone head-to-head matchup this season, Kansas State scored a 76-74 road win at Baylor, cashing as a 1½-point pup. The Bears had won two straight and three of four coming into this season, and they’re still 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The underdog has been the play in 10 of the last 11 series clashes.
Baylor is on positive ATS streaks of 19-7 in neutral-site games, 7-2 on Friday, 4-0 against Big 12 foes, 4-0 after a straight-up win and 9-4 after a spread-cover. Kansas State is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six Friday affairs, but otherwise is on positive pointspread runs of 16-6-1 overall, 11-5-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against winning teams.
The Bears are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 14-5 overall, 13-4 in Big 12 action, 10-1 after a spread-cover and 5-0 on Fridays. The Wildcats have topped the total in four straight neutral games and five of seven Friday contests, but they have stayed below the posted number in three of four after a straight-up win. In this series, the over has been the play in four of the last six clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Minnesota (19-12, 15-15 ATS) vs. (11) Michigan State (24-7, 12-18 ATS)
Minnesota alternated wins and losses in its final five regular-season games (4-1 ATS) then stomped Penn State 76-55 as a six-point chalk Thursday in the opening round of the conference tourney at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Gophers shot 58 percent from the field and held Penn State to 39 percent, including just 4-for 16 from beyond the three-point line.
The Spartans won three straight (2-1 ATS) and five of their final six (4-2 ATS) to close the regular-season, allowing 58 points or less in four of those games. It was much-needed surge for Michigan State after a three-game SU and five-game ATS losing skid. Prior to that slump, the Spartans had jumped out to a 9-0 start in conference play, the best in school history.
Michigan State carries an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) over Minnesota into this quarterfinal matchup. The Spartans swept the season series from the Golden Gophers this year, winning 60-53 at home as a 6½-point favorite and then scoring a last-second 65-64 road win as a 1½-point pup two weeks later.
While the Golden Gophers have cashed in six of their last seven overall (all against Big Ten teams), they’re on ATS skids of 7-17 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600 and 2-4 in neutral-site games. Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight neutral-site contests but just 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record.
For Minnesota, the “under” is on streaks of 7-4 in neutral-site games, 13-4 against teams with a winning record, 8-2 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600 and 5-0 on Friday. The Spartans have topped the total in six of their last eight at neutral sites, but they’ve also stayed below the number in 20 of their last 29 against Big Ten teams, four of five on Friday and five straight against teams with winning records.
In this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in five straight and eight of the last nine dating back to 2006.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
(22) Georgetown (22-9, 15-12 ATS) vs. Marquette (22-10, 16-9-1 ATS)
Georgetown advanced to the Big East tournament semifinals at Madison Square Garden after exploding for 54 second-half points Thursday en route to a 91-84 upset victory over top-seeded (and third-ranked) Syracuse, cashing as a 5½-point underdog. Junior guard Chris Wright (27 points) lead four players in double-figure scoring for the Hoyas, who earned a first-round tournament bye then rolled over South Florida 69-49 Wednesday as a 7½-point chalk.
The Hoyas have won three straight games for the first time since early January and the first time all season in Big East play. Additionally, they’re on their first 3-0 ATS streak since December 2008.
Marquette, which has been involved in one nail-biter after another this season, continued that trend Wednesday when it knocked off 10th-ranked (and fourth-seeded) Villanova 80-76 as a five-point underdog. The Golden Eagles shot 48.1 percent overall but 11-for-18 (61.1 percent) from three-point range as they advanced to the tournament semifinals for the first time since XX. Marquette opened the tourney with a shaky 57-55 victory over St. John’s (failing to cover as a 4½-point chalk), and it is now 11-2 dating back to Jan. 26.
The Eagles have played 26 contests since the end of November, with 16 decided by five points or less, and 12 of those 16 decided by three or less. Take away a 69-48 blowout home win over Louisville on March 2, and Marquette’s last six games were decided by a total of 15 points.
Marquette has won and covered three straight against Georgetown, including a 62-59 victory as a 1½-point home chalk back on Jan. 6. Since the Big East expanded to include the Eagles in 2005-06, Marquette is 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in this rivalry, with the SU winner going 6-1-1 ATS.
The Hoyas have now cashed in four straight neutral-site games, but despite their current 3-0 ATS run, they’re still 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a spread-cover. In fact, Georgetown hasn’t cashed in four straight games since a 10-0-2 ATS run near the end of the 2006-07 season. Meanwhile, Marquette is riding positive pointspread streaks of 12-5-1 overall, 15-6-1 in Big East action, 9-2 as an underdog this year (6-0 last six), 11-3-1 versus winning teams and 3-1-1 after a SU victory.
The under is on runs of 6-1 for Georgetown after a victory, 48-22 for Georgetown after a spread-cover, 5-2 for the Eagles after a SU win, 5-0 for the Eagles after an ATS triumph and 5-2 for the Eagles on Friday. On the flip side, both squads have topped the total in four of their last five games against winning teams, and the over is 4-1 in the last five series clashes, with the lone “under” occurring this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARQUETTE
Notre Dame (23-10, 16-10-1 ATS) vs. (7) West Virginia (25-6, 13-17 ATS)
The Fighting Irish continued their late-season surge on Thursday with a 50-45 win over Pitt in the Big East quarterfinals, cashing as a two-point underdog. Notre Dame has rattled off six straight wins and cashed in seven straight. The Irish have changed their defensive mentality over the last six games, allowing just 54.6 ppg after giving up more than 72 ppg in their first 27 games. They’ve also scored 50, 68, 63 and 58 points in their last four, dragging their season scoring average down to 76.8 ppg.
West Virginia has won four straight overall (2-2 ATS), including a narrow 54-51 win over Cincinnati in the quarterfinals Thursday, falling short as an 8½-point favorite. With the score tied at 51, Mountaineers star forward Da’Sean Butler banked in a desperation three-pointer at the buzzer to avoid overtime and seal the win. West Virginia held the Bearcats to 17-for-52 shooting (32.7 percent) and got 17 points and six boards from Kevin Jones. However, prior to Butler’s heave, the Mountaineers had gone 3-for-19 from beyond the three-point arc.
Back on Jan. 9, Notre Dame scored a 70-68 win over West Virginia and cashed as a 4½-point home pup. However, in last year’s Big East tourney, the Mountaineers took down the Irish, winning 74-62 as a six-point favorite. Notre Dame has won seven of the last 10 series clashes.
The Irish are on ATS streaks of 7-0 overall, 6-0 after a straight-up win and 7-0 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, West Virginia has failed to cash in each of its last five Friday games and just two of its last seven neutral-site contests.
Notre Dame is on several “under” streaks, including 6-0 overall, 19-7 against Big East opponents, 20-6 after a spread-cover, 13-3 in neutral-site games, 11-1 against winning teams and 5-0 on Friday. The Mountaineers have topped the total in seven of eight Friday contests and four straight after a non-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 11-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a straight-up victory.
In this rivalry, the under has cashed in 10 straight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
(8) New Mexico (29-3, 18-11-2 ATS) vs. San Diego State (23-8, 15-13 ATS)
New Mexico ran its winning streak to 15 in a row Thursday, but it wasn’t easy as the Lobos struggled to get past last-place Air Force 75-69 at the Thomas & Mack Center, never threatening to cover as a hefty 17½-point favorite. New Mexico, which won the Mountain West regular-season title outright, has won its last five games seven points or fewer, outscoring opponents by just 4.8 points per game (72.4-67.6). Also, Steve Alford’s squad has followed up a 7-2-1 ATS run by going 1-4 ATS in its last five.
The Aztecs, who entered this tournament on the Big Dance bubble, nearly saw their postseason dreams go up in flames Thursday, barely getting past Colorado State 72-71 as a 10½-point favorite in a quarterfinal contest. Trailing by a point, San Diego State drained two free throws with 23 seconds remaining, but needed the Rams to come up empty on two ensuing possessions to seal the victory.
San Diego State has won three in a row and nine of 12 (all in the Mountain West), but it has followed up a 6-0 ATS spurt by failing to cover in four of its last five.
The Aztecs and Lobos split their season series, with each protecting their home court. San Diego State won 74-64 as a four-point chalk in the Mountain West opener on Jan. 5, while New Mexico got revenge exactly a month later in Albuquerque, but needed over time to do so, prevailing 88-86 but falling short as a seven-point underdog. Prior to this season, the Lobos had been on an 11-3 ATS tear in this rivalry.
San Diego State dropped to 3-12 over its last 15 neutral-site games with Thursday’s non-cover against Colorado State, and New Mexico is 2-7 ATS in its last nine at neutral venues. However, the Lobos have covered in five of their last six on Friday and five of their last seven versus opponents with a winning record.
The Aztecs have stayed under the total in four straight Friday games and seven of 10 at neutral sites, but the over is 5-1-1 in their last seven versus winning teams. Also, New Mexico is on “over” tears of 4-0 overall (all in conference) and 5-1-1 versus winning teams. Finally, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes between these schools
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(14) BYU (29-4, 18-12 ATS) vs. UNLV (24-7, 18-11 ATS)
Like New Mexico and San Diego State before them, the second-seeded Cougars received a stiff test in their quarterfinal matchup against TCU on Thursday before pulling away late for a 95-85 victory, never threatening to cover as a 16½-point chalk. Junior point guard Jimmer Fredette scored 30 of his career-high 45 points in the second half for BYU, which trailed 40-39 at halftime and was leading by just a point with less than 13 minutes to play. Fredette established Mountain West tournament records with this 45 points and 23-for-24 effort from the free-throw line.
UNLV was the only conference squad that advanced to the semifinals in comfortable fashion, pounding out a 73-61 win over Utah, the only Mountain West team to sweep the Rebels in the regular season. UNLV, which blew a late 21-point lead against the Utes and just missed covering as a 12½-point home favorite, has recorded five straight double-digit wins by an average of 21.4 ppg. The Rebels, who get this tournament on their home floor, are 14-3 at the Thomas & Mack Center (9-6 ATS).
These teams opened the Mountain West campaign against each other in Provo, Utah, and BYU had to a rally for a 77-73 victory, falling short as a 7½-point chalk. Exactly a month later in Vegas, the Rebels got revenge in a huge way, blasting the Cougars 88-74 as a two-point home chalk. UNLV jumped out to a 56-34 halftime lead and never looked back.
The Rebels have gone 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight battles in this rivalry, they’ve cashed in 10 of the last 13 overall and six of the last seven at the Thomas & Mack.
Despite coming up way short against TCU yesterday, BYU is still 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games, including 7-2 ATS as a favorite and four straight spread-covers as a road team. UNLV has followed up a three-game ATS run with consecutive non-covers, but the Rebels were a double-digit favorite in all five games. They’re just 4-5 ATS in Mountain West home games.
BYU has topped the total in seven of its last nine overall, and UNLV has gone “over” in three of its last four following a 4-0 “under” run. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 13 of the last 15 contests overall (5-0 last five) and eight of the last nine in Vegas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNLV and OVER
PAC-10 TOURNAMENT
(at Los Angeles)
Stanford (14-17, 12-16-1 ATS) vs. Washington (22-9, 12-18 ATS)
Stanford shocked No. 2 seed Arizona State with a 70-61 victory in Thursday’s quarterfinals, cashing as a 7½-point underdog to halt a three-game SU and ATS purge and keep its season alive. The Cardinal, who finished ninth in the conference, have beaten the spread in all three of their neutral-site games this year (2-1 SU), averaging 64 ppg and giving up just a bucket less at 62 ppg.
Washington is making a strong push for a Big Dance berth, peeling off wins in 10 of its last 12 games, including the last five in a row (4-1 ATS). The Huskies finished the regular season with three consecutive road wins (3-0 ATS), then opened the Pac-10 tourney Thursday with a 59-52 victory over Oregon State, though they fell short as a nine-point chalk. Washington is the third seed out of the Pac-10.
Washington went 2-0 SU and ATS in this rivalry this season, hammering Stanford 94-61 as an 8½-point home favorite on Jan. 14, then coasting to a 78-61 road win giving 3½ points on Feb. 13. The Huskies are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with the Cardinal, winning the last five SU and the last four ATS.
Stanford has cashed in four of five at neutral sites, but from there it is on ATS slides of 0-4 on Friday, 1-4 against winning teams and 3-7 following a victory. The Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 versus losing squads, but they’ve failed to cash in four of five at neutral sites and five straight Friday outings.
Stanford ended the regular season with eight consecutive “unders,” but the Cardinal hurdled the total in Thursday’s win over Arizona State, and the over is 10-1 in their last 11 on Friday and 9-4 in their last 13 at neutral venues. Likewise, Washington is on “over” runs of 31-13 in conference action, 7-2 on Friday and 23-10 after a SU victory. However, the under is 11-5 in the last 16 in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Nashville)
Florida (21-11, 15-12 ATS) vs. Mississippi State (21-10, 13-12-1 ATS)
Florida kept its slim Big Dance hopes alive by dropping Auburn 78-69 Thursday night laying 5½ points, halting an ill-timed three-game SU skid in the process. The Gators, who are the No. 4 seed in the SEC East, are 8-7 SU in road/neutral site games this season (7-6-1 ATS in lined contests), averaging 70.8 ppg on neutral courts but allowing 68.4.
Mississippi State, the top seed in the SEC West, has followed a 5-1 SU surge with a pair of SU and ATS losses to end the regular season. The Bulldogs tumbled at Auburn 89-80 as a two-point road chalk on March 3, then got drubbed by then-No. 16 Tennessee 75-59 on Saturday as a 3½-point home favorite. Mississipi State’s defense has been key to its success, allowing foes to shoot just 38.4 percent on the year (10th nationally).
Mississippi State was on a four-game ATS run (2-2 SU) in this rivalry before Florida nabbed a 69-62 home win as a three-point chalk on Feb. 6. That marked the first time in the last five meetings that the underdog has covered.
The Gators are on ATS upswings of 7-3 against winning teams, 6-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, and 5-2 after either a SU or an ATS victory. The Bulldogs have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven Friday contests, but they are on ATS upticks of 7-2 at neutral sites and 4-0 coming off a double-digit home loss.
Florida is on “under” surges of 5-1 on Friday, 4-1 against winning teams, 37-15 versus teams with a win percentage above .600 and 27-12-1 coming off a SU win. Likewise, Mississippi State sports “under” streaks of 6-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 after an ATS setback, 8-1-2 at neutral sites, 4-1 against winning teams and 12-5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five clashes, with last month’s meeting falling 5½ points short of the 136½-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (47-18, 27-35-3 ATS) at Phoenix (40-25, 37-28 ATS)
The well-rested Suns return to the court looking to knock off the Lakers for the second straight time as these Pacific Division rivals clash at the US Airways Center.
Los Angeles held off the Raptors 109-107 on Tuesday, with Kobe Bryant hitting the game-winning shot in the waning seconds as the Lakers snapped their first three-game losing skid in more than two seasons. However, L.A. fell way short as an 11½-point home favorite, dropping to 2-8-1 ATS since returning from the All-Star break (1-8-1 ATS as a favorite). The Lakers have also dropped four straight road games (1-3 ATS), as their only road win since the break was a last-second, one-point victory at Memphis.
Phoenix has been off since Saturday, when it knocked off the Pacers 113-105, but came up short as a 13-point home favorite. The Suns have won 14 of their last 18 games (both SU and ATS), but they’ve followed up an eight-game spread-covering winning streak with consecutive ATS setbacks. Phoenix, which leads the NBA in scoring (109.5 ppg) has scored in triple digits in 57 of 65 games this year, including the last nine in a row.
The home team has won the last six meetings in this rivalry, and both of this year’s contests were routs as L.A. won 108-88 as a 9½-point chalk on Dec. 6 and the Suns returned the favor with a 118-103 triumph as a one-point underdog on Dec. 28. The Lakers are 6-2 in the last eight meetings (5-3 ATS), and they’ve cashed in seven of their last 10 trips to Phoenix.
Los Angeles has been a pointspread disaster across the board, as it is in ATS funks of 2-8-1 overall, 1-4 on the road, 0-3-1 against Western Conference foes, 1-5 versus division rivals, 1-4-1 against winning teams, 1-5-1 after a non-cover, 3-9 on Friday and 0-3-1 following two days off.
On the flip side, in addition to going 14-4 ATS in their last 18 overall, the Suns are on pointspread surges of 5-2 at home, 6-1 in Western Conference contests, 4-0 versus Pacific Division foes, 6-1 after a SU victory and 13-3-1 on Friday. The only negative: A 3-11-1 ATS mark when the Suns are coming off three or more days of rest.
The Lakers sport “under” streaks of 10-4 overall, 8-2 on the road, 6-1 in the Western Conference, 19-7 after two days off. Similarly, Phoenix is on “under” runs of 11-5 overall, 6-2 at home, 4-1 after three or more days off, 19-9-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 on Friday. However, the over is 9-4 in L.A.’s last 13 against winning teams, 5-1 in the Suns’ last six against the Western Conference and 4-0 in the Suns’ last four after a SU victory.
Finally, the over has cashed in nine of the last 13 Suns-Lakers battles, including five of the last seven played in the desert.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
